Case 1: Bangladesh

Source: UN University Centre for Policy Research, 2020

Author(s): Adam Day and Jessica Caus

Countries: Bangladesh

Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Conflict Prevention, Disasters, Gender, Governance, Livelihoods, Renewable Resources

Located in the world’s largest river delta, Bangladesh’s fertile territory and coastal waters sustain an extraordinarily dense and fast-growing population. With a majority of Bangladeshis living in coastal and riverine areas, and a heavy dependency on fragile agricultural crops, it is also one of the most vulnerable countries to environmental shocks. Here, climate change is already having an unmistakable impact. Rising temperatures have dramatically increased annual river flooding, displacing hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshis every year; higher sea levels are causing greater saline content in the groundwater; increasingly severe tropical cyclones have damaged arable land and exacerbated inland inundation; and more erratic rainfall has meant the agricultural sector has swung between droughts and floods. Facing the certainty of continued temperature rises globally, and already feeling the impact of regional tensions, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister has called climate change an “existential threat” to her country.82 This case study explores the extent to which climate change may be impacting the risks of violence and insecurity in Bangladesh. Examining the major trends and scientific findings on environmental changes across the country, it investigates the extent to which those changes may be exacerbating underlying tensions, creating new disputes over resources or increasing the resort to violence in particular communities. The study also examines the Government’s attempts to adapt to climate change in Bangladesh, asking how State-led adaptation efforts may have mitigated conflict risks. Drawing on interviews with in-country experts, the study describes the UN’s strategy for supporting climate adaptation in Bangladesh, focusing on efforts that reduce risks of violence. The analysis suggests that the UN’s prevention challenge in Bangladesh is intimately related to climate change, requiring tailored strategies to support inclusive and sustainable governance responses in the face of rapidly escalating environmental risks.